Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Georgia
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Oman
  • Jordan
  • Kuwait
  • Bahrain
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Singapore
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tajikistan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $989,572$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48,990$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{136,355.9}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 337.9)}}\) (asimptote \(136,355.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $252,528$ on 2020-12-02

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $143,376$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,342$ on 2020-12-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,413$ on 2020-12-02

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $339,619$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{371,936.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 199.2)}}\) (asimptote \(371,936.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,883$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,320.5}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 216.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,320.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,476$ on 2020-12-02

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $556,728$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{595,330.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 192.9)}}\) (asimptote \(595,330.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,340$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,142.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 166.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,142.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,075$ on 2020-12-02

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $124,145$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{114,265.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.8)}}\) (asimptote \(114,265.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,430$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,557.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 165.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,557.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,102$ on 2020-12-02

Jordan⮸

Population $10,203,134$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $227,208$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,854$ on 2020-12-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55,925$ on 2020-12-02

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $143,260$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{148,574.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 171.6)}}\) (asimptote \(148,574.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $882$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{919.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 128.1)}}\) (asimptote \(919.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,244$ on 2020-12-02

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,270$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{92,137.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 170.7)}}\) (asimptote \(92,137.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $341$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{372.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 163.7)}}\) (asimptote \(372.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,466$ on 2020-12-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 100%
Qatar recovered 93%
Saudi Arabia recovered 93%
Tajikistan recovered 73%
Kuwait recovered 73%
Maldives recovered 63%
Jordan recovered 59%
India recovered 58%
Bangladesh recovered 34%
Malaysia recovered 26%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,230$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,160.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(57,160.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-12-02

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $139,256$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,290.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 99.7)}}\) (asimptote \(127,290.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $239$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 96.8)}}\) (asimptote \(225.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,504$ on 2020-12-02

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $357,872$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{345,092.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(345,092.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,919$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,817.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 130.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,817.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,440$ on 2020-12-02

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,269$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,695.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 70.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,695.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $87$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{88.2}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(88.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $505$ on 2020-12-02